Seeking clarity in complexity? Try Bayesian Reasoning.

Seeking clarity in a complex world? Try Bayesian Reasoning. 🌫️

🔍 Our reality isn't merely black and white. But, our minds often default to absolutes instead of embracing the "grayscale". That's why we have to think in terms of probabilities, not certainties.

Enter Bayesian Reasoning. This approach nudges us to keep updating our probabilities as we gather fresh information. Sounds straightforward, right? But...

We have a lot of biases that make us struggle to embed new information into a broader context. Recency bias, contrast bias, framing (and some of the other issues I have tackled in past posts) keep us from calculating accurate probabilities.

🚀 When faced with a decision, challenge yourself: Have I recalibrated my beliefs based on the most recent AND relevant data? 🤔

For any decision, gather all the data - and spend time updating prior probabilities or beliefs whenever you have new or updated data.